A study by the University of Denver recently predicted that the European Union’s share of the world market is headed for a dramatic decline in the coming decades.
At the moment, the share of global trade of the 28 EU member countries amounts to 22% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP), substantially less than the 35% that the same nations had in 1960, according to data collected by Express.
According to the study conducted by the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver, this percentage will fall to 9.9% by 2100. And this scenario may be even worse since the study has not assessed the consequences of the UK’s exit from the EU scheduled for the end of January.
The study predicts that the UK will be the only EU nation to increase the size of its economy to seventh place next year and sixth place by 2100, overtaking Germany and France and becoming the largest economy in Europe.
By contrast, Spain’s economy would jump from 13th to 33rd place by 2100 if it remained in the EU, according to experts at the Pardee Center.
Outside Europe, the economies that will grow the most will be India, China, the United States, Indonesia, and Nigeria.
In fact, the United States has experienced great growth during President Donald Trump’s nearly three years in office, going from a fifth of the global economy (21.2%) to a fourth of the global economy (24.8%), according to data from the Center for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) World Economic League Table.
Is the European Union falling apart?
In addition to gloomy expectations at the economic level, serious interference in the sovereignty of member states is leading to growing unease in countries such as Poland, Hungary, and Spain.
In the case of Hungary, the EU is trying to impose a migration policy contrary to that decided by the government of Viktor Orban and something similar is happening in Poland.
The case of Spain is even more delicate since a recent ruling by the high European court granted parliamentary immunity to a Catalan independence leader convicted of sedition in Spain. Oriol Junqueras was elected to the European Parliament last spring, before he was convicted.
This ruling clashes with the sentence of the Spanish justice system which, in addition to sentencing the independence leader to prison, disqualified him from holding public office for more than 10 years.
In this context of enormous discontent in the Spanish nation because of the violent and long separatist process that the country has been suffering for more than three years, the conservative party VOX, the third largest in number of seats in Congress, strongly criticized what it considers an “attack on Spain’s national sovereignty and a humiliation”:
“Spain is suffering a very serious attack on its sovereignty and therefore on its Constitution. The European courts have joined this attack today. After several ‘allied’ countries questioned and humiliated our justice system, now the European Court of Justice of the EU is giving oxygen and support to the coup process in Catalonia,” wrote VOX President Santiago Abascal on Twitter.
“It is urgent that Spain make itself respected in Europe,” added Abascal who, as a result of this incident, is receiving more and more pressure from his bases and voters to lead a movement out of the EU that has already gone viral on social networks under the name “Spexit.”