The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released its annual report this Wednesday, November 17, warning the U.S. government that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has amassed enough weaponry and troops to invade Taiwan.

“The PLA [People’s Liberation Army] has already achieved the capabilities needed to conduct an air and naval blockade, cyberattacks, and missile strikes against Taiwan,” the Commission’s report asserts.

“PLA leaders now likely assess they have, or will soon have, the initial capability needed to conduct a high-risk invasion of Taiwan if ordered to do so by CCP leaders. They will continue enhancing this capability in the coming years.”

The PLA currently can send about 25,000 troops to invade the island by air and water, so the Commission concludes that the conventional U.S. military presence is not sufficient to deter the CCP from invading the island.

The report says Beijing is more likely to invade Taiwan if it perceives that the U.S. “is not militarily capable of or politically willing to intervene, or if they interpret ambiguities in U.S. policy to mean that opportunistic Chinese aggression against Taiwan will not provoke a decisive U.S. response.”

It further asserts that Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s ambition to unify the island to China as part of his ‘legacy’ is greater than his desire to maintain diplomacy with the U.S. government, so he would be willing to risk an attack.

The Commission also projects that the CCP will have the same nuclear capability and weaponry as the United States, which is currently superior worldwide by 2030.

Another aspect of Chinese strategy that the report notes is that, unlike the United States and other Western powers that use nuclear deterrence policing, the CCP prefers the policy of using nuclear power ‘just once.’

Deterrence policing implies that powers such as the U.S. build nuclear weapons to intimidate their enemies so that they do not have to use them or use them only after the enemy attacks.

In contrast, the CCP is willing to use its ‘one-time’ nuclear weaponry to achieve its political objectives and supposedly deter the U.S. and other allies from coming to Taiwan’s defense.

If Beijing succeeds in its island invasion and the United States does not react, the Commission warns, the CCP could initiate conventional wars against all U.S. allies in the region.

According to its website, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission was created by the U.S. Congress in October 2000 with a legislative mandate to monitor, investigate, and submit to Congress an annual report on the national security implications of bilateral trade and economic relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, and to provide recommendations to Congress for legislative and administrative action.

The Biden administration’s ambiguous stance is a risk factor

“A lack of clarity in U.S. policy could contribute to a deterrence failure if Chinese leaders interpret that policy to mean opportunistic aggression against Taiwan might not provoke a quick or decisive U.S. response,” the Commission’s analysis states.


While the report highlights Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s ambition, it also stresses that invasion has not yet occurred precisely because the CCP fears failure if the U.S. military intervenes.


In recent public appearances, President Biden first stated that the U.S. would ‘defend’ Taiwan if invaded by the Chinese as part of its ‘commitment,’ but such stance was later denied by the White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, who indicated nothing changed in the U.S.-China relation.


However, in a recent interview with CNN, the Taiwanese president, Tsai Ing-wen, confirmed that American troops are training her soldiers against a possible Chinese invasion, a move that angered the CCP and showed the ambiguous stance of the U.S. government.

The risk of investing and trading with China

The Commission also analyzed the risk of trade and investment in China since the Chinese financial system is entirely intervened by the CCP and recommended that Congress oversee and legislate activity among American companies and investors interested in China.


Committee Chair Robin Cleveland explained that due to the Chinese regime’s control of the financial system, many investors could not take their capital out of China. Many Chinese companies have been identified as a national security risk to the United States because of their relationship with the CCP, which often forces them to spy on and hand over the personal data of their foreign customers.

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