According to Sina Finance, the 2022 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum, “2022 in Turmoil—Global and Chinese Economic and Policy Outlook,” was held on May 14.
According to Ting Lu, Chief Economist at Nomura Securities, the current epidemic’s economic impact in China is similar to the early stages of the outbreak in 2020.
As a result of the virus’s rapid spread, Ting said China had seen an increase in the expense of epidemic prevention. At the same time, high-level strategies may even impact exports, making it more difficult and costly for China to clear the pandemic.
He said that the impact accounted for a relatively low proportion of GDP in 2020. Data from Statista shows 2.24% for China’s GDP growth in 2020. China’s annual GDP growth rate in 2021 was 8.08%. Meanwhile, it is forecast to be around 4.37% in 2022.
According to Ting, it would be critical that this year stays at such a low level, especially when March and the second quarter were the most critical months for the start of the economy. Statista shows that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 was 4.8% compared with the figures in 2020 and 2021
According to Sina Finance, the center of the epidemic is in the Yangtze River Delta. This is China’s financial, logistic, and economic hub, consisting of high-end electronic industries, a supply chain network, and a complicated labor division.
Ting said that any problem in logistics would affect exports and the entire industrial chain.
As China’s largest port, Shanghai accounts for 20% of the country’s export logistics. Therefore, if exports are affected by the outbreak, it could result in a loss of orders.
Ting Lu pointed out other impacts of the outbreak on China’s economy.
First, he listed some of China’s current issues, such as the rising unemployment rate and the uncertainty of businesses and residents. Other issues are the downward pressure on real estate and increasing expenditure on anti-pandemic strategies, investments, and infrastructure.